Question.3940 - ENVR 1401 Examining the Carbon Cycle, Energy Use and Carbon Emissions The Carbon Cycle, amounts of carbon in sinks (blue) and annual flux (red) in gigatons [Gt]. See also Figure 3.21 from the online textbook The Carbon Cycle shows sinks for all forms of carbon, including carbon in CO2, carbon in organic matter, carbon in fossil fuels, etc. It also shows how much carbon cycles from one sink to another in one year in gigatons (Gt); (1 gigaton (Gt) = 1,000,000,000 tons). To focus on atmospheric CO2, you will use conversions provided in the questions. Find the latest measurement of atmospheric CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory [MLO] in Hawaii at the NOAA website: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/*On the website, make sure you click on the Trends in CO2 button at the top, and are clicked into the Mauna Loa, Hawaii data, and click on the Full Record tab. From the display box at the NOAA website, find the date and the concentration of CO2 from the latest measurement shown on the website, and the date and concentration listed for a year ago. Write that information in the table below. Month/Year CO2 concentration Latest: One Year Previous: Difference in Concentration (up+ or down-) 2. Reading the explanations below the graphs at the NOAA website, what is the difference between the red and black lines on the graphs? Why does the red line have high and low values over each year? See Chapter 15, Section 15.4 in the online textbook for discussion. Earths atmosphere is about 78% nitrogen N2, 21% oxygen O2 and 1% argon Ar. Use the conversion 1ppm = 0.0001% to convert the latest CO2 concentration measurement from #1 into a percentage, show work. Atmospheric carbon dioxide at MLO is measured in parts per million [ppm], but the Carbon Cycle diagram above shows the amount of carbon in the atmosphere in gigatons [Gt]. To convert from ppm CO2 to GtC 1ppm CO2 = 2.13 GtC/ppm Convert the latest CO2 ppm value you got in #1 into GtC Latest CO2 ppm from #1 GtC = [(CO2 ppm) X (2.13 GtC/ppm)] Is the concentration of atmospheric carbon in GtC you calculated above close to the value shown for the atmosphere on the Carbon Cycle diagram above, is it higher or lower or the same? Looking at the graph trends on the NOAA web page and the explanations there, what are some factor(s) that could account for any difference between your calculated latest carbon concentration in #4 and the carbon concentration given on the diagram above? In the table below, write the Gt amount of atmospheric carbon you determined for the atmosphere in #4, and then write the amounts for the carbon sinks shown on the Carbon Cycle diagram above: Carbon Sink Total Carbon in Gt Atmosphere Earths Crust Oceans (total) Plants Soils Fossil Fuels In which of the sinks listed on the table is carbon locked in and not easily released? Explain. From which of the sinks does carbon easily move into other sinks? Explain. Next, directly compare CO2 emissions to atmospheric CO2 levels. Carbon emissions data are in units of Gt of carbon [GtC], and atmospheric CO2 levels are in parts per million [ppm]. First, both sets of data can be converted to gigatonnes of CO2. Since CO2 emissions data is typically expressed in gigatonnes carbon [GtC], only the carbon?element of the carbon dioxide molecule is included. The atomic mass of the element carbon is 12, while the atomic mass of the CO2 molecule is 44. To convert from Gt carbon to Gt of carbon dioxide, divide 44 by 12: 1 GtC = 3.67 Gt CO2 9. Convert the yearly emissions from burning fossil fuels from the Carbon Cycle diagram above from Gt C into Gt CO2 Gigatonnes of Carbon [GtC] from Burning Fossil Fuels per year (from Carbon Cycle Diagram above) Gigatonnes per year of CO2 [GtCO2] conversion [GtC X 3.67] Natural sinks (like the oceans and biosphere) absorb approximately 55% of human carbon emissions (fossil fuel combustion, deforestation and land use changes), so what is actually added to the atmosphere is about 45% of total carbon emissions from fossil fuels. 10. Use the emissions percentage with the GtCO2 amount you got above to get an amount for how much GtC burning fossil fuels adds to the atmosphere Gigatonnes per year of CO2 [GtCO2] conversion [GtC X 3.67] from #9 Amount of fossil fuel carbon emissions that gets into atmosphere per year [GtC] Atmospheric CO2 is measured in parts per million [ppm] so the GtC in fossil fuel emissions has to be converted into ppm. 1 ppm atmospheric CO2 is equivalent to 2.13 GtC. Taking into account the atomic mass of the element carbon is 12 and the atomic mass of the CO2 molecule is 44, this means the conversion is 1ppm = 7.8 Gt of CO2 in the atmosphere. 11. Convert the annual fossil fuel emissions from GtC into ppm Amount of fossil fuel carbon emissions added to atmosphere per year [GtC] from #10 CO2 ppm added to atmosphere per year by burning fossil fuel [GtC/7.8] 12. Is the change in concentration in ppm you determined above close to the one year change in CO2 concentration measuremed at the NOAA website from #1? Is it greater or less than the measured change? What does this suggest about fossil fuels and other possible source(s) that might be changing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere? Explain. Preliminary Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions CO2 is not classified as a criteria air pollutant according to the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS), see Chapter 16 pgs 355- 363 and Table 16.1. As stated in the online textbook on p362 in Chapter 16, regulating CO2 has been the subject of intense debate since the 1990s. Policymakers acknowledge that increased atmospheric temperatures can have deleterious climate effects, but CO2 is difficult to control because it is produced in many ways both naturally and by industrial processes, such as in electricity generation, manufacturing, food production, transportation, and heating buildings. See the Carbon Cycle at the beginning of this lab worksheet for examples. The following data and questions deal with some of the energy and policy issues associated with CO2 emissions. Use the graph and data for Energy Consumption by Source, World at this website link to answer the following questions. Scroll the mouse pointer over to the right side of the graph to see energy consumption percentages from the year 2023. Record those data on the table below World Energy Sources Percentage of Total Consumption, 2023 Other Renewables Biofuels Solar Wind Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal Oil Combustion of fossil fuels produces atmospheric CO2. Add up the percentages of fossil fuel consumption for 2022, what is the total? What is the total percentage of all other non-carbon emitting energy sources? What is the total percentage of Solar + Wind energy sources? Left: Total U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector 2022; Right: Total U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector Including Electricity End-Use Indirect Emissions 2022? Use Fig. 19.3 p430 in the online textbook to connect each type of energy on the table with the economic sector in the US that uses it the most (Transportation, Electricity Generation, Residential, Commercial or Industrial): Energy Resource Economic Sector Solar Nuclear Hydro Wind Geothermal Natural gas Coal Biomass Petroleum With the goal of reducing carbon emissions, if you had to choose only one economic sector using the pie charts and table above, which one would it be? Why that sector, and what positive and negative aftereffects do you expect could result from reducing emissions in that sector? If you had to choose only one economic sector sector using the pie charts and table above that you would not interfere with to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which one would it be? Why that sector, what factors make you want to leave that sector alone? The table below has a selection of individual countries to gather data on energy use and CO2 emissions for the year 2021. Fill out the first three columns using the link Data from CO2 Emissions vs. Fossil Fuels graph, and the last two columns using the link Data from Energy Use vs. GDP graph. The countries listed on the table should be highlighted and labelled on the website graphs, and you can get the information by passing your mouse pointer over the data point for each country. You can also add or remove highlighted countries by clicking the drop-down menu labelled Select Countries and Regions *Data from CO2 Emissions vs. Fossil Fuels **Data from Energy Use vs. GDPCountry *Per Capita CO2 Emissions [t/person] *Population *Fossil Fuel Consumption [kWh] **Per Capita Energy Consumption [kWh] **GDP per capita [$] Bangladesh Brazil China France India Japan Mexico Qatar Russia South Africa United States GDP (PPP) per capita is the value of all final goods and services produced in an economy during a given year, divided by the population for the same year, adjusted for the cost of living in each country. Looking at the data plotted on the Data from CO2 Emissions vs. Fossil Fuels graph, what is the correlation between CO2 emissions and fossil fuel consumption? Looking at the data plotted on the Data from Energy Use vs. GDP graph, what is the correlation between energy use and GDP? Using the data you gathered above, calculate the following parameters for each country on the list, put your answers in the table. Country Total CO2 Emissions per Country [Per Capita CO2 X Population] Percent of Fossil Fuels Used for Energy Generation [Fossil Fuels consumption/Energy Consumption] Bangladesh Brazil China France India Japan Mexico Qatar Russia South Africa United States Find the country you live in on the list, or if it is not there, look it up on the Data from Energy Use vs. GDP link. Which country is it and what was the GDP per capita 2021? Considering your own income from jobs, businesses etc., and the costs of your housing, bills etc., is that GDP value in #11 close to what you and/or your family live on? Average world GDP per capita in 2022 was $20,645. Would an adjustment in your own income to that level be beneficial or be a financial hardship? How so? Given the correlation of the data (question #9), and the suggestion that reducing energy use reduces greenhouse gas emissions, at what level of energy use and GDP are you comfortable living with if the government of the country you live in mandates such changes in energy use? Which country from the data table above or on the graph Data from Energy Use vs. GDP best represents that level? Is this level of GDP higher or lower than the country in which you currently live? How close is it to the World PPP GDP per capita average listed in question 13? The Absolute Zero or Net Zero policy suggests that greenhouse gas emissions must be cut to zero by the year 2050. Given the current percentages of fossil fuel and renewable energy used that you examined in questions 1-8, how do you think that policy would affect the energy use and GDP preferences you sited in questions 11-15? Explain the differences between your preferences and the policy, whether or not you support those policy goals, and what adjustments you would have to make to align your previously stated preferences to those policies. Test the ideas you discussed in #16. Go to the Very Simple Climate Model at this link. The model displays historical data from global average temperature, atmospheric concentration of CO2 and carbon emissions for the period 1960-2015. Two settings can be adjusted to run the model into the future to the year 2100: Carbon Emissions (GtC) can be increased or decreased, and Climate Sensitivity can be adjusted up or down. Scroll down to the bottom of the web page for notes and more details about the model. Use ?C for the temperature setting. Scroll your mouse pointer onto the model graph to see values on the graph. What are the values for the three parameters in the year 2015? Be sure to write the units. 2015 Carbon Emissions 2015 Temperature 2015 CO2 Concentration What are the default settings for Carbon Emissions and Climate Sensitivity in 2015? Write units. Carbon Emissions:Climate Sensitivity: First run the model at the default settings to the year 2100. This assumes that Carbon Emissions levels remain the same year after year, neither increasing nor decreasing. Do you think this is a realistic assumption? Why or why not? What are the values for the three parameters in the year 2100 using the default settings? Be sure to write the units. 2100 Carbon Emissions 2100 Temperature 2100 CO2 Concentration The sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends an increase from current average global temperature by the year 2100 of no more than 1.5?C (See the Recommended Temperature Limit line on the model graph). See Chapter 15, Section 15.4 in the online textbook for discussion. What happened to CO2 Concentration in the model run at the default settings? Did the Temperature in 2100 satisfy the IPCC goal? What does this model run suggest about the role of carbon emissions in future temperature change? To test the Net Zero policy, reset the model using the Start Over button above the graph. Now, run the model at the 2015 default settings to the year 2025, which is close to the current year, and pause it there to get the values the model produced. What are the values for the three parameters in the year 2025? Be sure to write the units. 2025 Carbon Emissions 2025 Temperature 2025 CO2 Concentration Now you can start the Net Zero experiment, as if worldwide efforts were made to reduce carbon emissions to 0 in the year 2050. Given the 2025 value for Carbon Emissions, and the goal of Net Zero by 2050, how much should carbon emissions decrease every five years to get 0 emissions in 2050? Show work. Using the five-year decrease amount you calculated in #23, run the model starting in 2025 on that basis: First decrease the Carbon Emissions setting by the five-year amount, then run it to 2030 and pause the model. Next, decrease the Carbon Emissions setting by the five-year amount, then run it to 2035 and pause the model. Repeat this procedure for every five-year interval until you get to the year 2050 and zero carbon emissions. After running the model according to the instructions, what are the values for the three parameters in 2050? 2050 Carbon Emissions 2050 Temperature 2050 CO2 Concentration What happened to CO2 Concentration in the model? What happened to the Temperature? Now continue to run the model using the Net Zero emissions setting to the year 2100. Remember, the sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommends an increase from current average global temperature by the year 2100 of no more than 1.5?C (See the Recommended Temperature Limit line on the model graph). See Chapter 15, Section 15.4 in the online textbook for discussion. What are the values for the three parameters in the year 2100? Be sure to write the units. 2100 Carbon Emissions 2100 Temperature 2100 CO2 Concentration Comparing the 2025 model temperature to the 2100 model temperature, did the Net Zero settings you used achieve the IPCC goal? Net Zero necessarily requires the elimination of using fossil fuels for energy (e.g. electricity generation, transportation). Going back to the calculations you did in question #10, what percentage of your countrys energy is generated using fossil fuels? Understanding the correlation between energy use and GDP highlighted in question #9, take the Energy Use per capita [kWh] of your country from question #7 and reduce it by the percentage of fossil fuels that must be eliminated in question #28. Show work, highlight answer. Use the link Data from Energy Use vs. GDP graph to match the Net Zero Energy Use per capita you got in #29 to the resulting GDP per capita. What is the Net Zero GDP per capita, and what country on the graph best matches that level of Energy Use and GDP? How do you think your lifestyle would be affected by this change? The Net Zero emissions changes you modelled above would require worldwide cooperation to achieve. How do you think the governments of various countries should manage or enforce compliance on industry and individuals to maintain emission levels? Explain. What if other countries do not follow emission goals and increase their energy use and emissions over time? Where should the emission goals be in relation to other national priorities? How can or should compliance be encouraged or enforced? Explain your reasoning. Do you think there are other options you could model that might achieve the year 2100 IPCC goal besides the ones explored above? Provide an explanation of your model below, including the setting variables and the results of running it, and describe and explain why you think it is a better option. Including a screen shot image of your model run is encouraged but not required. Model Explanation: 2100 Carbon Emissions 2100 Temperature 2100 CO2 Concentration

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